The Stock Market Pulse

($49.95/month value)

December 22th, 2008

Taking the following two weeks off!

We'll be back Monday January 5th

Happy Holidays to you and yours :-)

 

Weekly review of the markets

 

Last week, we concluded that going higher from here would be very difficult since a lot of obstacles are keeping investors confidence down and in the end, since the main problem economy faces is consumer's confidence, increasing it is the main goal at this time

Monday, the financial sector took a hit after JP morgan and bank of America were downgraded. The White house reiterated its intention to help the automotive industry while industrial production lost 0.6% and another financial scandal shook investors confidence. Through it all the market closed slightly lower

 

Tuesday, we were expecting the FOMC announcement and more importantly its comments. Markets opened higher in the expectation the rates would be cute again but remained relatively calmed until the actual announcement. We were expecting a reduction of 50 points which would take the rates down to 0.50. The FED surprised everybody with a rate cut that now brings the interest rate between 0% and 0.25%. The FED also mentioned they were willing to use every means at their disposal to stimulate the economy. They will continue to aggressively buy back illiquid assets from banks allowing them to continue offering loans. This announcement had a serious impact on the dollar, making it lose 1.9% but the markets loved the news. We saw a nice rally after the news.

 

Wednesdayopened with some profit taking. The open was weak but the sell off was contained. Oil prices took a dive even after the OPEC announced it would reduce production which brought the price close to 40$ by the end of the day. IN the end the markets remained pretty leveled all day and closed unchanged.

Thursday news that came out at 10AM didn't impact the markets. Most indicators came out relatively better then expected thus the markets remained unchanged until the Standard & Poor’s placed General Electric under surveillance. Since GE is one of the few that still has an AAA rating this news had a negative impact on the markets in the afternoon. On the other side, oil speculators don’t seem to think the reduction in production announced by the OPEC will have much impact since oil prices declined further by another 10%, closing at 36.74... Remember it was 147$ not long ago! The market slump was stopped by our bullish line which is trying to establish itself since the end of November

Friday after the open the White house announced it was conceding a $17.4B loan to car manufacturers to help them make the necessary changes to become viable once again. President Bush said that letting car manufacturers declare bankruptcy wouldn't be responsible and would cause irreparable damage to the economy. At first the markets reacted enthusiastically to the news but regained their calm later on to close only slightly higher on the day. In the end, the week finished pretty much where we were before the FED announced the cuts so the markets didn't improve much this week.

 

This Week we saw a combination of very bad news and very god news which left us pretty much unchanged. The coming weeks will offer us some more important economic news but not a lot of players to interpret them. Most portfolio realignments are done by now and most will wait to the end of the next trimester before reevaluating their strategies. This year we might need to wait a little longer then usual since we'll likely need to wait for the new administration to be in place. Since markets will be very illiquid over the next couple of weeks we might see higher volatility so we'll need to be careful how we evaluate these movements given they won't mean much so patience will be important during this holiday period.

 

 

 

Technically, I'm going back to the MACD. It does seem to confirm what we were stating a few weeks ago i.e. that the markets seem to be gaining strength The low at the end of November could be called the market capitulation level at which point no more sellers are showing up. Since we identified the positive divergence the market is remaining in a figure called a bullish triangle. Because of the holiday slowdown this triangle could stretch a little longer than usual

 

*if you want more information on technical indicators and Technical analysis in general I strongly recommend you click here

 

See graphic of the S&P500 below:

 

 

 

 

 

Economic Calendar

(Reports I consider will impact the market the most with definitions and expectations)

 (Soon to be a section for Investor Rules members only ) Not a member yet? Just go to

 

http://www.InvestorRules.com/membership.html

 

 

Monday December 22nd   

Nothing important, you can go finish your Christmas shopping now... ;-)

 

Tuesday December 23rd 

ICSC-Goldman Store Sales

7:45ET

Definition
This weekly measure of comparable store sales at major retail chains, published by the International Council of Shopping Centers, is related to the general merchandise portion of retail sales. It accounts for roughly 10 percent of total retail sales.

Why Do Investors Care?
Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005.

The ICSC-Goldman index is one of the most timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs store sales series previously was known as ICSC-UBS before Goldman Sach's involvement with ICSC. The name change took place with the September 30, 2008 release.

Corporate Profits
10:00 ET

Definition
Corporate profits, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), are summarized briefly as the income of organizations treated as corporations in the national income and product accounts. The BEA reports several measures of profits. Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment), are also known as operating or "economic" profits. Capital consumption adjustment deals with the differences in depreciation allowances used for accounting and income tax purposes. Inventory valuation adjustment (IVA) deals with the difference in measuring the cost of inventory replacement. Book profits amount to operating profits subtracting out inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments. After tax profits are book profits after taxes are subtracted. The Econoday reports will focus on after tax profits reported by the BEA, since these are the most relevant.
The corporate profit figures that are derived from the national income and product accounts (NIPA) depend on GDP growth. They don't always move in the same direction or the same magnitude as the profit data reported directly by individual companies or even the S&P 500.

Why Do Investors Care?
Corporate profits are the lifeblood of investment spending. Profits are the income of a corporation. When profits are strong, then companies will be able to increase their capital spending. This could allow better growth prospects for a company and is likely to increase its underlying value. When corporate profits decline, then capital spending tends to decline. Without the potential for growth, a company could be at a disadvantage, particularly in our global economic environment.
Corporate profits also reveal the health of an organization. When a company's profits are anemic during economic expansion, it suggests that the company is not performing efficiently. The value of an inefficient company is determined by its stock price. Thus weak profits signal lower stock prices. When a company's profits are relatively strong, even during an economic downturn, it usually means that the organization is well-managed. The higher value for this type of company is reflected in a higher stock price.

Gross Domestic Product
08:30 ET
Real GDP-Q/Q change- SAAR -0.5%
GDP price index -Q/Q change- SAAR 4.2%

Definition

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.

Why Do Investors Care?

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Redbook
08:55 ET

Definition

A weekly measure of sales at chain stores, discounters, and department stores. It is a less consistent indicator of retail sales than the weekly ICSC index. It is also calculated differently than other indicators. For instance, figures for the first week of the month are compared with the average for the entire previous month. When two weeks are available, then these are compared with the average for the previous month, and so on. It might be more useful to compare year-over-year figures since these are indeed compared to the comparable week a year ago. This index is correlated with the general merchandise portion of retail sales covering only about 10 percent of total retail sales.

Why Do Investors Care?

Consumer spending accounts for two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, but then rebounded at a healthy pace between 2003 and 2005.

The Redbook is one of the more timely indicators of consumer spending, since it is reported every week. It gets extra attention around the holiday season when retailers make most of their profits. It is also a useful indicator when special factors can cause economic activity to momentarily slide. For instance, once again,  it was widely watched in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita which hit New Orleans and the Gulf Coast in 2005.

 

Consumer Sentiment
10:00 ET
Consensus 58.6

Definition
The University of Michigan consumer surveyquestions 500 households each month on their financial conditions and attitudes about the economy. Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending. Consumer confidence and consumer sentiment are two ways of talking about consumer attitudes. Among economic reports, consumer sentiment refers to the Michigan survey while consumer confidence refers to The Conference Board's survey.
Why Do Investors Care?
The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Consumer confidence did shift down in tandem with the equity market between 2000 and 2002 and then recovered in 2003 and 2004. Consumers became more pessimistic in 2005 when gasoline prices surged.

Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so the markets are always dying to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend. With this in mind, it's easy to see how this index of consumer attitudes gives insight to the direction of the economy. Just note that changes in consumer confidence and retail sales don't move in tandem month by month.

 

Existing Home Sales
10:00 ET
Consensus 4.900M

Definition
Existing home sales tally the number of previously constructed homes, condominium and co-ops in which a sale closed during the month. Existing homes (also known as home resales) account for a larger share of the market than new homes and indicate housing market trends. (National Association of Realtors)
Why Do Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as home resales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Even though home resales don't always create new output, once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, home resales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the existing home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.

 

New Home Sales
10:00ET
Consensus 420,000

Definition
New home sales measure the number of newly constructed homes with a committed sale during the month. The level of new home sales indicates housing market trends and, in turn, economic momentum and consumer purchases of furniture and appliances.

Why Do Investors Care?
This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but the economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as new home sales, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.
Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once the home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.
Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, new home sales have a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the new home sales data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.

 

State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00ET

Definition
The State Street Investor Confidence Index measures confidence by looking at actual levels of risk in investment portfolios. This is not an attitude survey. This index is current since it uses data collected at the close of the previous Wednesday and is reported on the second to last Tuesday of each month

Why Do Investors Care?
Conventional wisdom suggests investors are confident when stocks are rising and pessimistic when falling. But in fact, the State Street group notes prices tend to be higher when economic fundamentals are strong; i.e., when economic indicators are growing at a healthy clip. But a good investor confidence measure "should indicate whether, for a given set of fundamentals, investors are bullish or bearish on risky assets."

State Street believes direct measurement, rather than a survey of portfolio managers who often don't have time to fill out monthly questionnaires, is a more reliable approach to consumer confidence. The investor confidence index is compiled with techniques based on modern portfolio theory. According to State Street, "the more of their portfolios that professional investors are willing to devote to riskier as opposed to safer investments, the greater their risk appetite or confidence." So when investors choose to increase their holdings of risky assets, this confirms their confidence has increased. Incidentally, State Street believes investor confidence can exist in a bear market as well as a bull market.

Since market players have become so enamored with consumer attitude surveys, it probably would be useful for both professional portfolio managers and amateur investors to consider investor attitudes.

 

 

Wednesday December 24th  

Markets closes at 02:00ET

MBA Purchase Applications
07:00ET

Definition

The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

Why Do Investors Care?

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic "ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.

Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carries valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.

 

Durable Goods Orders
10:00 ET
Consensus -3.0%

Definition
Durable goods orders reflect the new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of factory hard goods. The first release, the advance, provides an early estimate of durable goods orders. About two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the factory orders report. The data for the previous month are usually revised a second time upon the release of the new month's data. (Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce)
Why Do Investors Care?
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. Rising equity prices thrive on growing corporate profits - which in turn stem from healthy economic growth. Healthy economic growth is not necessarily a negative for the bond market, but bond investors are highly sensitive to inflationary pressures. When the economy is growing too quickly and can't meet demand, it can pave the road for inflation. By tracking economic data such durable goods orders, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

Orders for durable goods show how busy factories will be in the months to come, as manufacturers work to fill those orders. The data not only provide insight to demand for items such as refrigerators and cars, but also business investment such as industrial machinery, electrical machinery and computers. If companies commit to spending more on equipment and other capital, they are obviously experiencing sustainable growth in their business. Increased expenditures on investment goods set the stage for greater productive capacity in the country and reduces the prospects for inflation.

Durable goods orders tell investors what to expect from the manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy, and therefore a major influence on their investments.

 

Jobless Claims
08:30ET

Consensus 552K

Definition

New unemployment claims are compiled weekly to show the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time. An increasing (decreasing) trend suggests a deteriorating (improving) labor market. The four-week moving average of new claims smoothes out weekly volatility.

Why Do Investors Care?

Jobless claims are an easy way to gauge the strength of the job market. The fewer people filing for unemployment benefits, the more have jobs, and that tells investors a great deal about the economy. Nearly every job comes with an income that gives a household spending power. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing, so a stronger job market generates a healthier economy.

There's a downside to it, though. Unemployment claims, and therefore the number of job seekers, can fall to such a low level that businesses have a tough time finding new workers. They might have to pay overtime wages to current staff, use higher wages to lure people from other jobs, and in general spend more on labor costs because of a shortage of workers. This leads to wage inflation, which is bad news for the stock and bond markets. Federal Reserve officials are always on the look out for inflationary pressures.

By tracking the number of jobless claims, investors can gain a sense of how tight, or how loose, the job market is. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise, bond and stock prices will fall, and the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who tracked jobless claims and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.

Just remember, the lower the number of unemployment claims, the stronger the job market, and vice versa.

 

Personal Income and Outlays
08:30ET
Personal Income –M/M change 0.0%
Consumer Spending – M/M change -0.7%

Definition
Personal income is the dollar value of income received from all sources by individuals. Personal outlays include consumer purchases of durable and nondurable goods, and services.
Why Do Investors Care?
The income and outlays data are another handy way to gauge the strength of the consumer sector in this economy and where it is headed. Income gives households the power to spend and/or save. Spending greases the wheels of the economy and keeps it growing. Savings are often invested in the financial markets and can drive up the prices of stocks and bonds. Even if savings simply go into a bank account, part of those funds are typically used by the bank for lending and therefore contribute to economic activity. In the past twenty years, personal savings have diminished rapidly as consumers have spent a greater and greater share of their income.

The consumption (outlays) part of this report is even more directly tied to the economy, which we know usually dictates how the markets perform. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, so if you know what consumers are up to, you'll have a pretty good handle on where the economy is headed. Investors can see how consumers are directing their spending, whether they are buying durable goods, nondurable goods or services. Needless to say, that's a big advantage for investors who determine which companies' shares they will buy.

 

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:35 ET

Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on petroleum inventories in the U.S., whether produced here or abroad. The level of inventories helps determine prices for petroleum products.
Why Do Investors Care?
Petroleum product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in crude oil prices - or price increases for a wide variety of petroleum products such as gasoline or heating oil. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for crude oil may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices.

Crude oil is an important commodity in the global market. Prices fluctuate depending on supply and demand conditions in the world. Since oil is such an important part of the economy, it can also help determine the direction of inflation. In the U.S. consumer prices have moderated whenever oil prices have fallen, but have accelerated when oil prices have risen.

 

EIA Natural Gas Report

12:00 ET

Definition
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides weekly information on natural gas stocks in underground storage for the U.S., and three regions of the country. The level of inventories help determine prices for natural gas products.

 

Why Do Investors Care?
Natural gas product prices are determined by supply and demand - just like any other good and service. During periods of strong economic growth, one would expect demand to be robust. If inventories are low, this will lead to increases in natural gas. If inventories are high and rising in a period of strong demand, prices may not need to increase at all, or as much. During a period of sluggish economic activity, demand for natural gas may not be as strong. If inventories are rising, this may push down oil prices.

 

Thursday December 25th  

 Merry Christmas!

 Friday December 26th   

 Nothing important except boxing day!

 

 

Yours truly,

 

 

 

 

Yours truly,

 

 

Eric LeRiche

http://www.InvestorRules.com